Underdetected dispersal and extensive local transmission drove the 2022 mpox epidemic. (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38428425/)

These scientists wanted to understand how a disease called mpox was spreading around the world. They used special models to look at the genetic information of the virus from different regions and combined it with data about air travel and how many people were getting sick.

They found out that the virus was spreading within communities even before people knew about it. They also saw that the number of cases being reported changed during the outbreak, and that the virus spread differently in different places.

They discovered that stopping people from traveling wouldn't have made a big difference in stopping the virus from spreading. They also found that in North America, the spread of the virus started to slow down before many people had gotten a vaccine for it.

The scientists think it's important to keep checking for new diseases and to use both genetic and epidemiological information together to control outbreaks early.

Paredes MI., Ahmed N., Figgins M., Colizza V., Lemey P., McCrone JT., Muller N., Tran-Kiem C., Bedford T. Underdetected dispersal and extensive local transmission drove the 2022 mpox epidemic. Cell. 2024 Mar 14;187(6):1374-1386.e13. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2024.02.003. Epub 2024 Feb 29.